equipifi Forecasts Holiday BNPL Volume Will Increase 75 Percent

equipifi, the leading bank-native Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) infrastructure provider for financial institutions, today released its 2026 holiday forecast. Powering BNPL programs owned by banks and credit unions, equipifi projects BNPL gross transaction volume (GTV) will grow about 75 percent year over year for the holiday shopping season, measured between November 1 and December 31.

equipifi's forecast draws on observed transactions from the equipifi Purchasing Power Index, which captures physical as well as online BNPL activity across over one hundred bank and credit union programs.

Key projections for the 2026 holiday season:

• BNPL GTV will increase 75 percent year over year
• Weekly average BNPL volume during this holiday season is expected to be 2x the typical weekly average in 2026
• About 30 percent of users during the holidays will be first-time users of the program

Holiday BNPL demand is growing and mobile-first

BNPL growth this season comes from deeper usage and wider adoption. The number of consumers using BNPL from their financial institution is expected to rise about 60 percent. Meanwhile, returning users have been spending about 8 percent more year over year leading into the holiday season, which is expected to increase through the end of the year. Last year, weekly BNPL volume during the holidays nearly doubled the January to October weekly average, as new programs and holiday demand stacked up, and Cyber Monday saw the highest single day usage for the year.

Mobile is the center of that activity. During Cyber Week 2025, more than 80 percent of BNPL sessions measured by the Purchasing Power Index happened on a mobile phone, and 9 in 10 holiday BNPL plans were accepted on one, pointing to consumers reaching for their financial institution's app while they shop.

New users keep arriving, too. Last holiday season, 44 percent of BNPL users of their financial institution's in-house programs were trying it out for the first time. equipifi expects first-time users to make up about 30 percent of holiday users this year, with returning users making up the other 70 percent.

"When offered by financial institutions, BNPL can meet consumers wherever they shop, and during the holidays that means on their phones," said Bryce Deeney, CEO and Founder of equipifi. "We're already seeing October's BNPL volume run at double the pace compared to the same time last year. The banks and credit unions that put BNPL in front of their account holders before Black Friday will capture the most of this season's demand."

"Every bank and credit union knows their account holders and can extend purchasing power backed by data," Deeney added. "The Purchasing Power Index puts that in context, so institutions can monitor their programs heading into the biggest spending weeks of the year."

About the Data

The forecast is based on the equipifi Purchasing Power Index, which formalizes equipifi's research into BNPL usage and measures bank-native BNPL and flexible payment activity by purchase category, retailer, channel, and consumer purchasing power and utilization. The Index draws on more than 1 billion transactions from more than 4 million households at over 100 financial institutions, collected January 2025 to September 2026. These projections are based on historical and current-period transaction data and are subject to change based on evolving market conditions. Holiday projections compare November 1 to December 31, 2026 with the same period in 2025; Cyber Week figures cover November 27 to December 1, 2025. equipifi will report Black Friday and Cyber Monday results against this forecast once Cyber Week concludes.

About equipifi

equipifi provides bank-native Buy Now, Pay Later infrastructure to banks and credit unions, giving financial institutions the tools to offer flexible payment options directly to their own account holders and members. For more information, visit equipifi.com.